Tezos & The Law of Large Numbers or How Much can I Make?


Big mistake on my part, no excuse for my laziness on not checking first.

Also, I will be responding to all once I get back.

My Apologies again for not checking what I was copying and pasting. You can view my original misleading post under this one, what was I thinking?

It has been a while since I have been on this forum, but thanks to the Tezos community I was contacted to participate in an Important Message to the Tezos Foundation. If you have not done so please read that post!

I have received quite a few emails from people who want to understand their possible return on investment in delegating.

For a more thorough explanation please see this article at chainomatic:
Tezos & The Law of Large Numbers

Probability of Being Selected - Quick Thinking:

  • 763,306,929 total tezzies.
  • 43,800 outcomes in a month.

(763,306,929 total tezzies) / (43,800 cycle length per month) = 17,427 tezzies you must control to have a chance at being selected.

The variables here are the number of tezzies delegated and the amount of time, cycle length.

Thinking in terms of total percent delegated:
((763,306,929 total tezzies) x (% delegated)) / (43,800 cycle length per month)
100% delegated need 17,427 XTZ
75% delegated need 13,070 XTZ
50% delegated need 8,713 XTZ
25% delegated need 4,356 XTZ
10% delegated need 1,742 XTZ

Given the reality of the math above you gain little by supporting large Tezos-pools and give away too much by centralizing power amongst the large pool operators.

Run the numbers yourself, once you do you will delegate to the independence of Tezos!

Remember Tezos’ rewards your participation at 5% and that is yours and yours alone!
You get that 5% no matter who you choose as your delegate!
Tezos Delegates should not run their service like a casino.



Delegate Yourself Tezos' Offering - Chaino̲matic

I don’t believe you have a good grasp of the mechanics or specifics of how the tezos network will operate. Your numbers are way off, and in some places the terms you put in for your calculations are just not appropriate for the place you used them. You also don’t seem to understand Arthur’s overall vision for scaling Tezos at a very high rate of transactions, which he states himself will require large delegation nodes that you later torch and denigrate in your article.

You seem to equate blocks being created per day with the amount of tezzies being created per day, which is wrong. You also completely ignore rewards for endorsing when there much more tezzies will be made from endorsements than there will be for baking new blocks (as current dev estimates are that we will have 63 endorsements per block in production network versus the 15 that we have in alphanet now). This suggests that probably at least one of the following is true (and neither of them are good): 1. you are planning on keeping all the extra tezzies from endorsements for yourself that you help your customers get, or 2. you havent really spent that much time in the alphanet.

What I’ve listed is not all that is wrong. I dont have time to address all your errors here now though.

What I have done a mont ago is create a modeling spreadsheet that helps everyone calculate baking rewards.


With this spreadsheet, download to your local system and edit yourself, or save to your google drive and edit it there. Dont change cells that are colored orange. You can change cells that are green. A delegate staking about 8713 tezos would look to earn about 70 tezzies per month.

And no, the Tezzigator business model is not based on paying “dividends” as you stated. Our model is “whenever Tezzigator earns, YOU earn”. I would appreciate it if you change that in your webpage article as well as here.

Few Delegation Services

This math is indeed incorrect. Also, to the best of my knowledge, our delegation service is the only one that use the term “Dividends”. We found that people simply understand this new strange Proof of Stake delegation concept better once we related it to a concept they already understand.



Has the issue of lock period for delegated Tezzies been resolved yet? As in, if I delegate to Mycryptodelegate.com, what if any limitations are there on me selling my Tezzies?


it appears there will be no lock period, and that apparently there is snapshot taken at some point in a cycle that dictates the schedule of delegates for the cycle that starts after the cycle after the current cycle. its based on how much is delegated to them at the time of the snapshot.

so technically you then are free to spend them; no lock period.


Correct. Also, it seems like the bond cycle will be about 11 days.


What does that mean, the bond cycle?

So at this point it seems to be a choice of which delegation company to use - Chainomatic, Tezzigator and MyCryptoDelegate. Where can I read about each one? Does anyone have any thoughts? Or which one you may have decided to go with for your Tezos stake?


The bond cycle is the time that your bond is held by the blockchain when you stake and bake. (or the bond of the Delegate you choose.) This does not mean that the Tezos that are staked are locked.

I would imagine that each of our respective sites would be the best source of information on which service each person should personally choose. (MyCryptoDelegate.com, Tezzigator.com, ChainOMatic.com)