In general, I agree with your statement, I just want to emphasize on this statement below
Many people on this forum agree and enjoy that court dates can take a while, but not so many people realize that for Bitcoin it does not take so much time to grow. Always measure these two factors - Bitcoin factor of grow and Tezos time to market.
Bitcoin has been growing with enormous speed since Tezos ICO. In fact, Bitcoin was 2500$ or something when Tezos did have their ICO. Today it is 8000. Almost 4 times higher.
By February it may reach 25k or 30k. I know it may seem unrealistic, and some people on this forum even laugh at me because of that. But, we all have to cry rather than laugh, because Tezos won’t be able to return your money invested on ICO day. Most likely we all will lose our money and will lose seriously. In best case scenario we will be able to get it back.
And this scenario is the following :
At ICO date Tezos cost about 35 cents if I am not mistaken and Bitcoin was 2500$ or something. I am more than sure that Bitcoin will be at 25k by Tezos launch, means Tezos price should be at least 3.5$ just to get your money back.
Not sure if Tezos will rise that high, even if it does, anyway it is a loss already. Think how many forks you have missed by holding this Tezos. You’ve missed Bitcoin Cash Fork, and now BCH is 1200$. You also missed BTG fork - and it is 200$ level now. So the loss is huge, assuming you were investing in Bitcoin, not Ethereum.
I regret that I believed that ICO. It was the biggest ICO ever, but it was the worst ICO ever as well as it turned out.
I am planning to sell this coin on day one and forget about it. Because it will tank quickly. On day two it will be seen - there are many people like me out there, who hate this Artur, and I don’t care what Tezos optimists are saying.
The Tezos deep dive on day one will be my best proof of this theory. No one is going to hold this coin. 2018 is a year of Bitcoin - everybody will be switching their gears to Bitcoin.
Unfortunately, we can’t have so many winners as everybody wishes.
I’d rather believe in EOS, not in Tezos. EOS team has a brilliant developer behind it, who has proved multiple times himself. And this teenager Artur will be promising and be telling you his new stories.
But the point is - we can’t have many win-coins in 2018. 2018 is going to be a Bitcoin year.
And worst case is of course - the price of Tezos will be so Low at Day 1, that it won’t justify your BTC investment in it. In that case I will be holding and become a bag holder… People who did not invest in ICO will be better positioned at Day 1 than us, who did invest. How crazy is this?